Ireland

Of all the home nations, the Irish have probably been the most disappointing side. At least England were expected to fare badly, but the Irish have been a let down so far. After a productive four years since the last tournament, they must have entered 2007 with the aim of winning the Six Nations and getting to the world cup semi-finals, yet somehow they have lost ground, and seem to be following the traditional All-Black pattern of peaking between tournaments. Aside from the many playing and personal issues that seem to be dogging them, the most worrying is the way that they have begun to revert to type. For years they have been followed by the tag of plucky underdogs who fight hard with passion but not much finesse or discipline, and crumble whenever faced with any expectation. Four good years of wins in big games seemed to have got that out of their system, but in 2007 they have choked on the big occasions, their discipline has slipped, and perhaps worst of all, their passion has seemed absent. The best prepared, most professional side in Irish history, containing a number of modern greats, have been poor.

The Irish campaign now boils down to one match. They need to find their passion, but not lose their discipline. They need to find their cutting edge, but not lose their composure. The quarter-finals would be just about an acceptable exit point for the side, so long as they go down fighting. If they come up short against Argentina, Eddie O'Sullivan's four-year contract extension might be looking a bit hasty. That said, no side plays the role of the underdog like the Irish, and I can't quite bring myself to write them off. My prediction for the weekend is a narrow and agonising defeat to the Argentinians.

No try!

I must have been watching a different replay to the video ref who gave Samoa's try on Saturday. I'm normally pretty good at being impartial (I like to think!), but I was 100% sure that the Samoan effort wasn't a try (despite what Stuart Barnes was waffling on about), as the guy didn't have the ball under control at any point. It was a knock-on and a drop out to England. No doubt.

So why was it given a try?

As someone who has banged on about how technology needs to be used more in sport, I found it somewhat embarrassing to realise that human error can still play a part with video analysis. But we can't let poor use of technology get in the way of using it as necessary to make crucial match-changing decisions....

Gomarsall passes test

Reading various newspaper match reports, it was interesting to see who pundits rated in the England win against Samoa. For me Gomarsall was man-of-the-match by miles and it's good to see that the BBC blog thought the same! I also read an article by Jeremy Guscott that said much the same thing...but there were many that didn't seem to rate his performance as highly as I did.

England's tactics seemed a little awry which is why it's difficult to say Wilkinson or Lewsey had particularly good games. They routinely kicked the ball down the middle to allow counter-attacks when we know that loose ball is what Samoa thrive off. We also know that Samoa's lineout is weak, so why not kick for touch? We didn't seem to be interested in kicking for touch until the final 3 minutes - just when we should have been opening things up to get the 4th try and a bonus point!

That said, at least it was a win. My team for Friday against Tonga would be identical but for three changes - Vickery in for Stevens (although Stevens played well I thought), Hipkiss in for Tait and Rees in for Worsley. We seemed to lack dynamism so I would be seriously tempted to bring Moody in for Corry at 6, but Corry's lineout work just settled it....Moody can come on and energise things in the 2nd half.

Sour grapes

Not strictly World Cup stuff I know, but is it just me that is wondering whether there is something amiss with Ben Cohen's attitude? He has bought himself out of his contract at Northampton after being overlooked for the captaincy.

Unless there is more to the story than is told in the press (which is probably the case!), it seems like a case of a spoilt kid not getting his own way, and then throwing his toys out of the pram.

England Team for Samoa

Lewsey, Sackey, Tait, Barkley, Cueto, Wilkinson, Gomarsall; Sheridan, Chuter, Stevens, Shaw, Kay, Corry (capt), Worsley, Easter.
Replacements: Regan, Freshwater, Borthwick, Moody, Richards, Farrell, Hipkiss.

Just quickly before I go and do some work, finally Lewsey gets to play at 15, how does Sackey retain his place? Smallest ever midfield? Chuter needs to throw straight although he should have been starting based on his form last year. How can Rees, the only English forward who has looked comfortable get dropped? Hipkiss, who for me, was one of the stars of the premiership last year must be pretty hacked off.....pleased to see Gomers starting as well as I reckon he has the best pass of the 9s out there........

World Cup World 15, so far........

Possibly a little early but here's my initial thoughts on who has impressed

15. Percy Montgomery (SA) / Chris Latham (Aus)

14. Brian Habana (SA)

13. Stirling Mortlock (Aus)

12. Tom Shanklin (Wales)

11. Vilimoni Delasau (Fiji)

10. Dan Carter (NZ)

9. Fourie du Preez (SA) / Agustín Pichot (Arg)

8. Finau Maka (Tonga)

7. Richie McCaw (NZ)

6. Jerry Collins (NZ)

5. Victor Matfield (SA)

4. Sebastian Chabal (Fra)

3. Carl Hayman (NZ)

2. John Smit (SA)

1. Os du Randt (SA)

So there's a bit of bias in there, Chabal is probably only in there for his 50 metre solo effort, and whilst Maka isnt the best 8 in the world he has impressed me so far. A lack of All Blacks in the back line is perhaps indicative more of their opponents so far and Shanklin sneaks in as the only home nations player......

Replacing Noon and the fly-half conundrum

With Jamie Noon out of the competition, England have what could be the last chance to inject some creativity into their squad. Noon never lets anyone down, and is a tough competitor, but I have always had doubts about his quality, and with four other centres in the squad, there is a chance to redress the balance, espeically in light of the fly-half situation. Wilkinson and Barkley may be nearing fitness, but it would not be a huge surprise if either got injured again, so I hope that Toby Flood gets a call-up. He looked comfortable on the international stage during the Six Nations, and was willing to try things, and some youth would be a welcome addition to the squad.
As for the fly-half position, it was never Mike Catt's best position, and he has not played a test there since 1999, but I was disappointed by his lack of imagination during the South Africa game. He was probably following orders, but the number of times he opted to crash it up himself, or use Farrell, was woefully lacking in imagination. He should not be the scapegoat, but if Wilkinson and Barkley are back for the next game, I would bring them both in at 10 and 12, with instructions that if plan a fails, to back themselves to try something different for plan b. Goodness knows England need to do something to salavge some pride. At least Samoa's defeat today has made progression to the quarter-finals more likely, though maybe it would be better if the side could just hurry up and go home.

The 10 Debate.

Well I was just about to write about Farrell being at 10, but Sky Sports has just told me Catt has been named at 10. My guess is that Catt and Farrell will interchange consistently, possible with an emphasis on Farrell play the short channel in defence.

But to go back to the point I was going to make, Ashton simply must have considered this scenario a possibility. With Wilko as fragile as a china vase, and the heavy hitting size of Samoa, Tonga and South Africa there was always a chance Barkley would get injured as well. So logic dictates he must, in leaving out Flood (or Hodgson) from the squad, have considered who his No. 3 fly-half was. So was the suggestion that Farrell was at 10 a bit of gamesmanship or had Ashton simply not got a clue who was his back up back up 10?

England's chances...

I hope I'm proved wrong but I'm feeling more than a little concerned for Farrell. The BBC rugby editor has summed things up nicely.

So if we assume that the match on Friday is a loss by more than 7 points, the Tonga game is a must win, and England will have been pleased with what they saw in the Tonga v USA match. A 10 point margin and just 3 tries means that England might still make it through the group, even after a potential mauling tomorrow night....

Farrell is number 10 - official!

As you can probably tell from my last post, I'm a bit concerned about this, but Farrell will play 10 against South Africa. He's got balls, but to be thrown in for your first international game at fly-half in a huge game is a big ask and I'm sure he's feeling more nerves than he's letting on.

As for his goal-kicking - I feel confident that he'll slot the penalties just outside the 22 and fairly central, unlike France's Screla. But his excellent record in rugby league doesn't include taking penalties from tight angles and great length, as tends to happen in rugby union. In a game where the absolute best England can hope for is a win by the odd point, Farrell has to feel more than a little pressure. On the other hand, he has a huge chance to become an England hero. Fingers crossed!

Farrell at 10?

With Barkley potentially injured, it's interesting hearing the views of the various experts on who should play where. Sean Edwards is convinced that Farrell should play 10. While I completely agree with him that Farrell is at his best as first receiver, it seems a huge risk to put him in there for a big game, without giving him the luxury of having played there before at international level. Just another example of how badly prepared the team are this time.

It's also interesting to hear that Ian Robertson reckons that England will call for Toby Flood and throw him in despit issues with jet-lag. But he also says something that will tantalise all England supporters: "I wouldn't completely rule out Wilkinson, he has trained and was running around and the ankle seems to be all right, so it's not impossible."

England announce team for South Africa

England team: Robinson, Lewsey, Noon, Catt, Sackey, Barkley, Perry, Easter, Rees, Corry, Kay, Shaw, Vickery (captain), Regan, Sheridan. Replacements: Chuter, Stevens, Borthwick, Moody, Gomarsall, Farrell.

Cueto, Dallaglio & Worsley miss out completely. Robinson switches to 15 and Sackey, Corry and Easter come in.

Wilko is still out and apparently Barkley is off to have a scan on his hip, if he is ruled out that leaves Catt at 10 and Farrell having to play so we have a kicker!! Althou if my memory serves Gomarsall used to be able to kick so perhaps that would make more sense that playing Farrell.

I don't understand why Dallaglio was dropped completely, he would still have been a more useful impact player than either Borthwick or Moody, and Corry could have acted as 2nd row cover......and as previously stated Lewsey should be at 15.

Muscle

Something I touched on when writing about the opening game of the tournament, was how physical Argentina were, and this has beem a recurring theme throughout the opening round. One of the many areas that New Zealand have dominated over the last 3-4 years is fitness and strength. Witness the sheer power with which they have been hitting rucks since the start of the 2005 Lions tour. The other Tri-nations sides followed suit, and it seems that whilst the Six nations sides have been dawdling, the less illustrious sides have been taking note. The Canadians' first half performance agasinst Wales owed a lot to a direct, physical approach, as did that of the Namibians against Ireland. These smaller nations will be blown away by the southern sides (Namibia shipped a hundred points against SA a few months back), but against the less powerful northern sides, they are able to put up a solid barrier, and make hard yards with a simple pick and drive approach. If a six nations side is going to win in 2011, some serious leaps forward need to be made in terms of conditioning. There is no excuse for professional outfits being off the pace like that. At the very least it would negate the somewhat tedious (though not in the right context) picking and driving on the line that has been the tactic of the tournament so far.

Oh dear, oh dear

So I guess someone should comment on the England game, although I didnt see it I have heard and read enough to suggest that it was actually worse than we were anticipating. Saying that all 6 Nations teams have struggled with inferior teams........Numerous rumours and suggestions are flying about, but the crux of the matter is simply that the players don't believe in themselves - they dont carry themselves with any degree of confidence and they hate the label of being world champs (although they wont have to worry about that for much longer).

A lot will be said about the club v country debate again in the next few weeks and until the matter is resolved, the key being that the southern hemisphere have complete backing through their structures, England in particular will no longer be able to compete with the Southern Hemisphere. There will also be talk about the lack of English players coming through the Premiership clubs forcing us to rely on Dad's Army mark 2. There is an interesting article here http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2007/09/10/multinational_club_scene_dilut.html which suggests what an alternative English based side would look like compared to an English National side.

How pleased was I that I could sit down yesterday and watch 4 games of rugby in a row - very! But I guess after Friday I'll have to choose another team to support........

Jones starts when fit...surely?

It was interesting to see the effect that Stephen Jones had on the Wales match yesterday. Yes, it was only Canada, and it was the second-half when gaps were likely to emerge for him to take advantage, but he did so very well. This BBC article surprised me though: Jones must play at fly-half. I've always assumed that there's no doubt that Jones plays fly-half when fully fit....is there really any doubt about that, even considering the excellent progress that James Hook has made?

If he's fit he has to play. In fact, if a Lions team was announced for Xmas now, he would have to be selected, given that the only player who could compete with him, Wilkinson, is struggling with so many injuries that he's not consistently at the top of his game. So come on Wales - play your best team and don't debate Jones' position as fly-half.

Google get in the spirit of rugby

Google often does various versions of its logo based on the current news and it's rugby's turn today. Good to see that the American based company are embracing rugby....

Argentina spoil France's party

What a superb way to open the world cup. Not a classic in terms of skill and precision, but in terms of drama it was spectacular. What struck me most about Argentina's performance, was two things; firstly, the aggressive way that they chased absolutely everything, and never gave a Frenchman a moment on the ball, they harried and hassled and tackled anything that moved. Secondly, the physicality of their performance. They played like South Africa or New Zealand in the way that they hit rucks and tackles really hard, at pace, and really asserted themselves. However, there is still room for improvement. Their decision-making was poor in attacking positions, and Hernandez needs to make a better fist of running a game. Their scrum was also unusually wobbly. The biggest challenge for them now, is proving that it was not a one-off. They need to ensure that they bring that same intensity to the match against Ireland, or they could yet miss out, if results go against them. Still, this is their day, and it makes a mockery of the fact that they are not included in the Tri-Nations.

Last minute tictacs

You have a penalty about 40 metres out with 45 seconds left. You are 5 points ahead. You are allowed up to 1 minute to place the ball and kick for goal, so you know that if you get the ball dead, kicking the ball after the 80th minute has started, you have won the game. So why not kick the ball sideways over the touch line, just 20 metres away, rather than kick at the posts? Was it that they thought they could ensure that France would get 0 points by losing by more than 7 points if they kicked the penalty? I for one was shouting at the screen for them to kick the ball ot of play sideways and ensure their win....is there anything to stop them doing that?

I only watched the second half, but Argentina seemed to have amazing guts in defence, and you can only admire them - you can read the match report here. It will be interesting to see how France react.

Playing badly but still winning

I've decided to put a small (ok, tiny) amount of money on South Africa to win the World Cup based on the fact that, on their day, they could beat the All Blacks - the overwhelming favourites. But thinking back to the last World Cup, the reason that England won the tournament was that they were sufficiently well prepared that they could play badly and still win. The final was a prime example of that - they didn't play well and yet they still came through....just.

So who in this year's competition could play badly and still win? Well, ominously, the All Blacks. Their performance in the Tri-Nations was a good example of a team not at its best playing pragmatically to ensure that they won. If they play like that they will win the World Cup - never mind the usual racking up of 100 points in the pool stages and then a semi-final meltdown.

The only other team that has a chance of winning while playing badly? France I reckon. They've shown recently that they can shut down the opposition as well as play with their usual flair.

But the Kiwi's are the overwhelming favourites. Everyone has been suggesting that their Tri-Nations performance has given hope to the other countries, but for me if they play like that they will win the World Cup.

Selection surprises

Given the amount of planning the major sides (England apart) have put into this world cup, I have been surprised by some of the selections for the opening matches. Argentina have their regular full back at fly half (though admittedly he has been known to play there), France have their right wing at full back, as do England. Wales might pick their full back at centre, and have only decided on a captain in the last couple of weeks, as have France. South Africa lost their first choice number 8 and replaced him in the squad with a hooker. The Aussies expect to blood an uncapped fly-half off the bench. The latter strikes me as especially risky, given Steven Larkham's somewhat fragile nature.
Is this a sign that these sides are confused about their direction? Or just a sign that modern rugby is about squads and versatility? Frankly, if any of the coaches of these sides were considering these moves, why weren't they tried sooner? The world cup isn't the time for experimenting. The winners of the last two tournaments had settled teams where every player knew his role.

Richie McCaw

This is the sort of thing that is being circulated around New Zealand via email at the moment. One hopes that it is sarcastic, but the Kiwi love of rugby, and especially their captain, I'm not so sure....

ALL BLACKS Captain & No. 7 Richie McCaw is so tough that...

When Richie McCaw does a pushup, he isn't lifting himself up; he's pushing the Earth down.

When Richie McCaw goes swimming he doesn't get wet, the water gets Richie McCawed.

When the Bogeyman goes to sleep every night, he checks his closet for Richie McCaw.

Richie McCaw counted to infinity - twice.

Richie McCaw invented every colour. Except pink. Tom Cruise invented pink.

Richie McCaw's hand is the only hand that can beat a Royal Flush.

Richie McCaw gave Mona Lisa that smile.

Richie McCaw can slam a revolving door.

Some kids piss their name in the snow. Richie McCaw can piss his name into concrete.

Richie McCaw's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; No-one fools Richie McCaw.

Richie McCaw can speak Braille.

Richie McCaw's tears cure cancer. Too bad he has never cried. Ever!

Superman owns a pair of Richie McCaw pyjamas.

Richie McCaw owns the greatest Poker Face of all-time. It helped him win the 1993 World Series of Poker despite him holding just a Joker, a Get out of Jail Free Monopoly card, a 2 of clubs, 7 of spades and a green #4 card from the game Uno.

Richie McCaw sleeps with a night light. Not because Richie McCaw is afraid of the dark, but the dark is afraid of Richie McCaw.

Once a cobra bit Richie McCaw's leg. After five days of excruciating pain, the cobra died.

Richie McCaw divides by zero.

When Richie McCaw exercises, the machine gets stronger.

Richie McCaw doesn't use pickup lines, he simply says, "Now".

Richie McCaw sold his soul to the devil for his rugged good looks and unparalleled rugby ability. Shortly after the transaction was finalised, Richie spear-tackled the devil and took his soul back. The devil, who appreciates irony, couldn't stay mad and admitted he should have seen it coming. They now play poker every second Wednesday of the month.

Richie McCaw can kill two stones with one bird.

Richie McCaw once devoured a whole wheel-barrow full of clay to prove to a friend that the expression "Shitting bricks" wasn't just a figure of speech.

The only time Richie McCaw was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistake.

Wilkinson out, Dallaglio in

Wilkinson is out after turning his ankle in training and Dallaglio starts in England's first match v the USA. You can read the full details of the Wilkinson injury and the team selected here.

New Zealand "champions"

I just wanted to show everyone a photo I took in NZ earlier this year. There are lots of shops that seem to suggest that they are "Champions of the World" despite the fact they haven't been since 1987. Maybe this will be the year and they will finally not be over-claiming....

New Zealand's last win

A very interesting article in Sunday's Observer Sports monthly magazine about the build up to the All Black's first and only World Cup win back in 1987. As a 9 year-old I wan't fully aware of the furore that led up to the tournament in New Zealand, but reading about it perhaps gives some hope to England - the All Blacks were able to win in 1987 despite going into the tournament in chaos.

Don't write off Australia

Looking at the odds listed by Ed below, Australia seem like good value at 11-1. Whilst much of the build up has focused on NZ, SA and France, Australia have snuck under the radar. Of the big nations, only England have had a worse few years, with mixed results, and a sub-standard pack bringing about Eddie Jones' demise. Since then, John Connolly has rebuilt the side under the motto "you've got to earn the right to go wide", laying forward platform that will allow them to play. The Aussies are a threat because they have a habit of producing mentally tough sportsmen who know how to peak at the right time (contrast against the mentally fragile South Africans). Four years ago they, like England, failed to get into top gear early on, but crucially upped their standards at the right times. In the 2003 semi-final they out-thought the All Blacks, and after inflicting a defeat on them in this year's Tri-Nations, they could pull it off again. Their pack may not bully other sides in the tight, but it can now hold its own, and their back row is one of the best. Meanwhile their backs may have less flair than their trans-Tasman rivals, but they are arguably the most clinical in the business, and if it came to another big clash with the Kiwis, there's nothing the Aussies love more than putting one over their supposedly more illustrious neighbours (apart from maybe beating England). Winning a World Cup is all about peaking at the right time, and at 11-1, Australia are a good shout to do the same thing again. If all goes according to form, they are set to meet England in the quarter-finals, and New Zealand in the semis. What chance a France-Australia final?

Winners

Best value to win looks to be South Africa at 6-1, although many will be tempted by France at 7-1 and Australia at 11-1. For that shot in the dark that could bring in really decent cash for the cost of pint, how about Argentina at 67-1?

Winning and losing finalists

Picking the two finalists is never easy but New Zealand versus South Africa or New Zealand versus France would seem to be the most likely. Personally I probably wouldn't go near this bet but the best value looks like South Africa to beat the All Blacks at 19-1.

Top England Try Scorer

England aren't the sort of side that are going to score loads of tries through their wings, although the easier group games may give them a few easy ones, so I reckon betting on the likes of Perry (29-1 although not on this screenshot) or Wilkinson (41-1) has to be worth a go.

5 days to go

Just 5 days to go until the start of the World Cup and, as always, there is a lot of speculation about how the various sides will do. Whether you are the sort of person to put money down or not, the odds are always interesting to look at as they demonstrate the bookies thoughts....and they are far more reliable than the pundits as they stand to lose money if they gt it wrong. Above I've looked at 3 particular bets that may be worth making in my opinion at Bet365. Bear in mind that the odds may change by the time you place a bet and that there are no guarantees!

To make your bet, click on the banner to the right of the page.