3 September 2007

Don't write off Australia

Looking at the odds listed by Ed below, Australia seem like good value at 11-1. Whilst much of the build up has focused on NZ, SA and France, Australia have snuck under the radar. Of the big nations, only England have had a worse few years, with mixed results, and a sub-standard pack bringing about Eddie Jones' demise. Since then, John Connolly has rebuilt the side under the motto "you've got to earn the right to go wide", laying forward platform that will allow them to play. The Aussies are a threat because they have a habit of producing mentally tough sportsmen who know how to peak at the right time (contrast against the mentally fragile South Africans). Four years ago they, like England, failed to get into top gear early on, but crucially upped their standards at the right times. In the 2003 semi-final they out-thought the All Blacks, and after inflicting a defeat on them in this year's Tri-Nations, they could pull it off again. Their pack may not bully other sides in the tight, but it can now hold its own, and their back row is one of the best. Meanwhile their backs may have less flair than their trans-Tasman rivals, but they are arguably the most clinical in the business, and if it came to another big clash with the Kiwis, there's nothing the Aussies love more than putting one over their supposedly more illustrious neighbours (apart from maybe beating England). Winning a World Cup is all about peaking at the right time, and at 11-1, Australia are a good shout to do the same thing again. If all goes according to form, they are set to meet England in the quarter-finals, and New Zealand in the semis. What chance a France-Australia final?

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